Track record
Every research signal since 29 October 2026 is recorded the moment it appears, and the record is never edited. Each signal is scored when its holding period ends. The rules have not changed since 28 October 2026; the methodology describes each rule and how it was tested.
Results at the close of Oct 30, 2026. Updated after every US trading session.
Results by rule
| Rule | Status | Signals | Open | Closed | Hit rate | Median result | Median vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 Capitulation | Validated | 2 | 2 | 0 | – | – | – |
| E1 Weak earnings reaction | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| O1 Lock-up overhang | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| F1 Microcap deal | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| T1 Pre-unlock quality | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| R20 Day-20 risk tier | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| RL Pre-unlock risk tier | Validated | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| U1 Slide into the unlock | Borderline | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| All published rules | 2 | 2 | 0 | – | – | – | |
Hit rate, median result and median vs peers cover closed signals with a result (– until a signal of that rule has closed). Only validated and borderline rules publish signals; candidate rules, listed in the methodology, are not published until live results confirm them.
Every live signal
| Date | IPO | Signal | Entry price | Status | Result | vs S&P 500 | vs peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026recorded Oct 30, 23:02 UTC | OPTHOptimi Health Corp. | BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions Capitulation | $2.41last $2.41 | Open, 40 sessions leftends Dec 29, 2026 | -0.2%to date | -0.2%to date | –when closed |
| Oct 30, 2026recorded Oct 30, 23:02 UTC | PLUTPlutus Financial Group Ltd | BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions Capitulation | $1.38last $1.38 | Open, 40 sessions leftends Dec 29, 2026 | -0.2%to date | -0.2%to date | –when closed |
How results are measured
- Each signal is recorded after the close of its signal session, with the time it was first seen, and records are never edited. A signal first seen more than two business days after its signal date is marked as recorded late.
- Result: for a buy signal, the return from the close of the signal session to the close of the session its holding period ends; for sell and sell or short signals, the negative of that return. 0.2% trading costs are deducted from every result. Borrow fees for short positions are not included; they are unknown and can be high.
- vs S&P 500: the same calculation on the return minus the return of the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same sessions. vs peers: the same calculation on the return minus the median return of active IPOs of the same deal size over the same sessions, scored when the holding period ends.
- Open signals show the result to date at the last close; it changes until the holding period ends.
- Signals are published after the close of the signal session, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's.
- Hit rate: the share of closed signals with a result above zero.
- Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
Past results do not predict future results.
Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.