IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

WBI

ValleyEnergy

WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC · NYSE · priced Sep 17, 2025 · $634M raised · Over $250M

Offer price
$20.00
Day 1
+13.5%
close vs offer
Peak
+34.6%
trading day 15
Now vs offer
+51.7%
$30.34 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-30.7%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Mar 16, 2026
228d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • WBI
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO over $250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

WBI measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 340 over $250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC, water infrastructure company, provides water management solutions through integrated pipeline and water handling networks in the United States. It offers produced water handling and gathering pipeline services; brackish water, recycled water, and produced water solutions; and gas transportation services. The company was incorporated in 2025 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Country
United States
Employees
540
Market cap
$3.8B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
27%
Locked shares per share sold
2.7×
Backed by
Private equity
Lead underwriters
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Barclays Capital Inc.
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
Yes
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 135 IPOs over $250m

HorizonWBIPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+13.5%+12.8%24% n=135
Day 20+27.1%+11.6%30% n=133
Day 60+8.5%+6.3%47% n=129
Day 120+20.0%-4.6%54% n=106
Day 180+53.8%-4.1%52% n=89

Research signals

  • BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessions
    Feb 13, 2026 · Pre-unlock quality
    Past signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • BuyRule RL: buy signal for 60 sessions
    Feb 13, 2026 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (329, deals of $50M and over): rose 54% · median +1.3% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 22%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • BuyRule R20: buy signal for 100 sessions
    Oct 14, 2025 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (389, deals of $50M and over): rose 46% · median -2.7% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 39%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.