IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

WAY

AccumulationHealthcare

Waystar Holding Corp. · NASDAQ Global Select · priced Jun 7, 2024 · $968M raised · Over $250M

Offer price
$21.50
Day 1
-3.7%
close vs offer
Peak
+47.4%
trading day 107
Now vs offer
+31.2%
$28.21 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-6.1%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Dec 4, 2024
695d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Accumulation.

Performance since the IPO

  • WAY
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO over $250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

WAY measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 340 over $250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Waystar Holding Corp. develops a cloud-based software solution for healthcare payments. Its platform offers financial clearance, patient financial care, claim and payer payment management, denials prevention and recovery, clinical integrity and revenue capture, and analytics and reporting solutions. It primarily serves healthcare industry. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Lehi, Utah.

Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Health Information Services
Country
United States
Employees
1,700
Market cap
$5.5B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
27%
Locked shares per share sold
2.7×
Backed by
Private equity
Lead underwriters
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Barclays Capital Inc.
Dual-class shares
No
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 135 IPOs over $250m

HorizonWAYPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1-3.7%+12.8%24% n=135
Day 20-1.3%+11.6%30% n=133
Day 60+23.3%+6.3%47% n=129
Day 120+43.6%-4.6%54% n=106
Day 180+97.0%-4.1%52% n=89

Research signals

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    May 15, 2026 · Capitulation
    Past signals (652, deals of $50M and over): rose 53% · median +2.1% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 33%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessions
    Nov 5, 2024 · Pre-unlock quality
    Past signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • BuyRule RL: buy signal for 60 sessions
    Nov 5, 2024 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (329, deals of $50M and over): rose 54% · median +1.3% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 22%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • BuyRule R20: buy signal for 100 sessions
    Jul 8, 2024 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (389, deals of $50M and over): rose 46% · median -2.7% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 39%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.