IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

STDN

DistributionBasic Materials

Standard Nuclear, Inc. · NYSE · priced Jul 16, 2026 · $150M raised · $50M–$250M

Offer price
$15.00
Day 1
-18.0%
close vs offer
Peak
+10.4%
trading day 34
Now vs offer
-14.3%
$12.86 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-30.4%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Jan 12, 2027
in 74d · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Distribution.

Performance since the IPO

  • STDN
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO $50m–$250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

STDN measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 453 $50m–$250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Standard Nuclear, Inc. operates as an independent advanced nuclear fuel company in the United States. It engages in design, engineer, and manufacturing of advanced nuclear fuels with a primary focus on TRISO fuel that is utilized by advanced reactors. It serves developers of advanced reactors designing SMRs and microreactors; and federal agencies pursuing HALEU -fueled demonstration reactors and mobile microreactor s…

Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Specialty Chemicals
Country
United States
Employees
80
Market cap
$2.1B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
6%
Locked shares per share sold
15.1×
Backed by
Mixed investors
Lead underwriters
BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Barclays, UBS Investment Bank
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
Yes
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 90 IPOs $50m–$250m

HorizonSTDNPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1-18.0%+0.4%36% n=90
Day 20-23.5%+0.3%46% n=87
Day 60-10.1%+3.4%43% n=83
Day 120—-6.9%58% n=73
Day 180—-13.1%56% n=64

Research signals

  • Sell or shortRule R20: sell or short signal for 100 sessions
    Aug 12, 2026 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (118, deals of $50M and over): fell 70% · median -24.6% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 55%
    backtest

    Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.