SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP · NASDAQ Global Select · priced Jun 12, 2026 · $75.0B raised · Over $250M
Price since listing
- Hype
- Distribution
- Lock-up window
- Valley
- Accumulation
- Recovery
Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Distribution.
Performance since the IPO
- SPCX
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Typical IPO over $250m
- Middle 50% of those IPOs
SPCX measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 340 over $250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.
Company
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three operating segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. The Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. It also provides launch services for the deployment of payloads to intended orbits for commercial and gov…
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Country
- United States
- Employees
- 21,000
- Market cap
- $1959.3B
- Website
- www.spacex.com
From the prospectus
- Lock-up
- 180 days
- Early release on earnings
- Yes
- Price-based early release
- at 130% of offer
- Staggered release
- Yes
- Float sold in IPO
- 4%
- Locked shares per share sold
- 22.6×
- Backed by
- Founder or family
- Lead underwriters
- Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup
- Dual-class shares
- Yes
- Controlled company
- Yes
- Foreign private issuer
- No
Early-release terms: For the 180-day lock-up group, up to 20% of shares are released on the second full trading day after the release of Q2 2026 results (the First Earnings Release Date). If the price trigger is met, up to 455.8 million Additional Release Shares are also released then. Up to 28% more is released on the second full trading day after the release of Q3 2026 results. For the extended group, 20% is released after each of the Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 results, and the remainder after the Q2 2027 results.
Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.
Returns vs offer, compared with 135 IPOs over $250m
| Horizon | SPCX | Peer median | Peers below offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +19.2% | +12.8% | 24% n=135 |
| Day 20 | +3.1% | +11.6% | 30% n=133 |
| Day 60 | +13.7% | +6.3% | 47% n=129 |
| Day 120 | — | -4.6% | 54% n=106 |
| Day 180 | — | -4.1% | 52% n=89 |
Research signals
- Sell or shortRule O1: sell or short signal for 60 sessionsJul 24, 2026 · Lock-up overhangPast signals (191, deals of $50M and over): fell 69% · median -13.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 28%backtest
Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.
- BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessionsJul 24, 2026 · Pre-unlock qualityPast signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule RL: buy signal for 60 sessionsJul 24, 2026 · Pre-unlock risk tierPast signals (329, deals of $50M and over): rose 54% · median +1.3% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 22%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- Sell or shortRule R20: sell or short signal for 100 sessionsJul 13, 2026 · Day-20 risk tierPast signals (118, deals of $50M and over): fell 70% · median -24.6% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 55%backtest
Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.
Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.
The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.
Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.
Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.