IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

SKYQ

ValleyEnergy

Sky Quarry Inc. · NASDAQ Capital · priced Oct 10, 2024 · $7M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$6.00
$48.00 split-adjusted
Day 1
-31.5%
close vs offer
Peak
-29.3%
trading day 6
Now vs offer
-95.4%
$2.19 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-90.3%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Apr 8, 2025
570d ago · estimated

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • SKYQ
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

SKYQ measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Sky Quarry Inc. operates as an oil production, refining, and development-stage environmental remediation company in the United States. It facilitates the recycling of waste asphalt shingles and remediation of oil-saturated sands and soils. The company also refines heavy crude oil to produce diesel and other petroleum products, such as paving asphalt liquids, vacuum gas oil, and naphtha. In addition, it holds 100% int…

Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Integrated
Country
United States
Employees
26
Market cap
$19M

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonSKYQPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1-31.5%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20-74.2%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60-80.2%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120-89.2%-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180-89.7%-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    Dec 6, 2024 · Capitulation
    Past signals (357, deals under $50M): rose 42% · median -6.8% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Nov 6, 2024 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule R20: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Nov 6, 2024 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (280, deals under $50M): fell 76% · median -33.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.