IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

RYDE

ValleyTechnology

Ryde Group Ltd · NYSE MKT · priced Mar 6, 2024 · $12M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$4.00
Day 1
0.0%
close vs offer
Peak
+168.2%
trading day 57
Now vs offer
-84.6%
$0.61 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-97.1%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Sep 2, 2024
788d ago · from prospectus · early release Jun 4, 2024

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • RYDE
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

RYDE measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Ryde Group Ltd engages in the provision of mobility and quick commerce solutions in Singapore. The company offers on-demand and scheduled carpooling and ride-hailing services; matching riders to its driver partners; and on-demand, scheduled, and multi-stop parcel delivery services. It also operates RydePay, a digital payments solution that allows users to pay and top up by card and to pay by RydeCoins; and Ryde+, a v…

Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Country
Singapore
Employees
25
Market cap
$105M

From the prospectus

Lock-up
—
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
Yes
Float sold in IPO
16%
Locked shares per share sold
5.4×
Backed by
Mixed investors
Lead underwriters
Maxim Group LLC
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
Yes

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonRYDEPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 10.0%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20-29.8%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60+129.5%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120+109.8%-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180-89.2%-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    Dec 17, 2024 · Capitulation
    Past signals (357, deals under $50M): rose 42% · median -6.8% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • SellRule RL: sell signal for 60 sessions
    May 6, 2024 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (233, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -13.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Apr 3, 2024 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule R20: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Apr 3, 2024 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (280, deals under $50M): fell 76% · median -33.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.