IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

Once Upon a Farm, PBC · NYSE · priced Feb 6, 2026 · $198M raised · $50M–$250M

Offer price
$18.00
Day 1
+16.9%
close vs offer
Peak
+44.0%
trading day 9
Now vs offer
-11.3%
$15.97 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-44.1%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Aug 5, 2026
86d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • OFRM
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO $50m–$250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

OFRM measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 453 $50m–$250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Once Upon A Farm, PBC produces and sells organic baby food pouches, meals, and snacks for children. The company provides pouches, including fruit an veggie blends, functional blends, and smoothies; frozen organic meals; and soft-baked bars for kids. It sells its products through retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and delivery platforms, as well as directly to consumers through platform. The company was founded in 2…

Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Packaged Foods
Country
United States
Employees
153
Market cap
$684M

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
27%
Locked shares per share sold
2.7×
Backed by
Not identified
Lead underwriters
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Dual-class shares
No
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 90 IPOs $50m–$250m

HorizonOFRMPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+16.9%+0.4%36% n=90
Day 20+15.3%+0.3%46% n=87
Day 60-18.2%+3.4%43% n=83
Day 120-12.2%-6.9%58% n=73
Day 180-11.6%-13.1%56% n=64

Research signals

  • BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessions
    Jul 8, 2026 · Pre-unlock quality
    Past signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.