IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

NNNN

ValleyHealthcare

Anbio Biotechnology · NASDAQ Global · priced Feb 19, 2025 · $8M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$5.00
Day 1
+15.4%
close vs offer
Peak
+942.0%
trading day 126
Now vs offer
-25.6%
$3.72 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-76.4%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Aug 18, 2025
438d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • NNNN
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

NNNN measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Anbio Biotechnology provides in vitro diagnostics (IVD) products in the European Union, the Asia Pacific, North America, South America, and internationally. The company offers lateral flow immunoassay, fluorescence immunoassay, loop-mediated isothermal amplification, SHA dry chemistry, chemiluminescence immunoassay, and real-time polymerase chain reaction solutions; and SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2/Flu A/Flu B antigen r…

Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Medical Instruments & Supplies
Country
Germany
Employees
27
Market cap
$167M

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
1%
Locked shares per share sold
88.9×
Backed by
Not identified
Lead underwriters
AC Sunshine Securities LLC
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
Yes

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonNNNNPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+15.4%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20+38.0%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60+40.6%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120+840.6%-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180+179.4%-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    Oct 31, 2025 · Capitulation
    Past signals (357, deals under $50M): rose 42% · median -6.8% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • SellRule O1: sell signal for 60 sessions
    Jul 21, 2025 · Lock-up overhang
    Past signals (178, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -17.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule RL: sell signal for 60 sessions
    Jul 21, 2025 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (233, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -13.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Mar 18, 2025 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.