IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

Jinxin Technology Holding Co · NASDAQ Capital · priced Dec 6, 2024 · $5M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$4.00
$100.00 split-adjusted
Day 1
+11.0%
close vs offer
Peak
+32.7%
trading day 9
Now vs offer
-98.1%
$1.90 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-88.7%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Jun 4, 2025
513d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • NAMI
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

NAMI measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Jinxin Technology Holding Company provides digital content services in People's Republic of China. The company offers digital versions of mainstream textbooks used in primary schools and middle schools; creates and develops digital self-learning contents and leisure reading materials in-house; and digital textbooks in Chinese and English subjects used in K-9 schools. It also distributes digital and integrated educati…

Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Internet Content & Information
Country
China
Employees
107
Market cap
$7M

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
2%
Locked shares per share sold
50.2×
Backed by
Venture capital
Lead underwriters
—
Dual-class shares
No
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonNAMIPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+11.0%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20+1.8%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60-8.0%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120-70.8%-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180-65.8%-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • SellRule U1: sell signal for 40 sessions
    Jun 6, 2025 · Slide into the unlock
    Past signals (56, deals under $50M): fell 71% · median -17.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 43%
    backtestborderline

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    May 30, 2025 · Capitulation
    Past signals (357, deals under $50M): rose 42% · median -6.8% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • SellRule O1: sell signal for 60 sessions
    May 6, 2025 · Lock-up overhang
    Past signals (178, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -17.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule RL: sell signal for 60 sessions
    May 6, 2025 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (233, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -13.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Jan 6, 2025 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule R20: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Jan 6, 2025 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (280, deals under $50M): fell 76% · median -33.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.