IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

IMC Rare Earths Ltd · NYSE MKT · priced Jul 29, 2026 · $20M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$5.00
Day 1
+2.6%
close vs offer
Peak
+140.0%
trading day 66
Now vs offer
+140.0%
$12.00 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
0.0%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Jan 25, 2027
in 87d · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Hype.

Performance since the IPO

  • IMC
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

IMC measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

IMC Rare Earths Ltd engages in exploration and development of mineral properties in Brazil. It primarily explores ionic adsorption clay deposits of rare earth elements. The company's flagship project is the Itarantim Project consists of 27 mining exploration licenses covering approximately an area of 111,700 acres located in the States of Bahia and Minas Gerais, Brazil. IMC Rare Earths Ltd was incorporated in 2025 an…

Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Country
Brazil
Employees
—
Market cap
$1.1B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
4%
Locked shares per share sold
25.3×
Backed by
Founder or family
Lead underwriters
Roberts & Ryan, Inc., Revere Securities LLC
Dual-class shares
No
Controlled company
Yes
Foreign private issuer
Yes

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonIMCPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+2.6%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20+110.0%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60+35.2%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120—-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180—-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Aug 25, 2026 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule R20: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Aug 25, 2026 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (280, deals under $50M): fell 76% · median -33.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.