FRACTYL HEALTH, INC. · NASDAQ Global · priced Feb 2, 2024 · $110M raised · $50M–$250M
Price since listing
- Hype
- Distribution
- Lock-up window
- Valley
- Accumulation
- Recovery
Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.
Performance since the IPO
- GUTS
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Typical IPO $50m–$250m
- Middle 50% of those IPOs
GUTS measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 453 $50m–$250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.
Company
Fractyl Health, Inc., a metabolic therapeutics company, develops therapies for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. It develops Revita DMR System (Revita), an outpatient procedural therapy designed to durably modify duodenal dysfunction, a pathologic consequence of a high fat and high sugar diet, which can initiate T2D and obesity in humans. The company also develops Rejuva, a novel adeno-associated vi…
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Country
- United States
- Employees
- 100
- Market cap
- $12M
- Website
- fractyl.com
From the prospectus
- Lock-up
- 180 days
- Early release on earnings
- No
- Price-based early release
- No
- Staggered release
- No
- Float sold in IPO
- 15%
- Locked shares per share sold
- 5.5×
- Backed by
- Venture capital
- Lead underwriters
- BofA Securities, Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI
- Dual-class shares
- No
- Controlled company
- No
- Foreign private issuer
- No
Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.
Returns vs offer, compared with 90 IPOs $50m–$250m
| Horizon | GUTS | Peer median | Peers below offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -14.3% | +0.4% | 36% n=90 |
| Day 20 | -32.9% | +0.3% | 46% n=87 |
| Day 60 | -53.5% | +3.4% | 43% n=83 |
| Day 120 | -73.1% | -6.9% | 58% n=73 |
| Day 180 | -83.4% | -13.1% | 56% n=64 |
Research signals
- Sell or shortRule U1: sell or short signal for 40 sessionsAug 2, 2024 · Slide into the unlockPast signals (60, deals of $50M and over): fell 67% · median -11.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 32%backtestborderline
Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.
- BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessionsJul 2, 2024 · Pre-unlock qualityPast signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessionsJun 21, 2024 · CapitulationPast signals (652, deals of $50M and over): rose 53% · median +2.1% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 33%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- Sell or shortRule R20: sell or short signal for 100 sessionsMar 1, 2024 · Day-20 risk tierPast signals (118, deals of $50M and over): fell 70% · median -24.6% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 55%backtest
Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.
Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.
The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.
Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.
Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.