Brazil Potash Corp. · NYSE MKT · priced Nov 27, 2024 · $30M raised · Under $50M
Price since listing
- Hype
- Distribution
- Lock-up window
- Valley
- Accumulation
- Recovery
Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.
Performance since the IPO
- GRO
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Typical IPO under $50m
- Middle 50% of those IPOs
GRO measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.
Company
Brazil Potash Corp. engages in the exploration and development of potash properties in Brazil. The company holds interest in the Autazes project, a potash deposit located in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. Brazil Potash Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Other Industrial Metals & Mining
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 36
- Market cap
- $113M
- Website
- www.brazilpotash.com
From the prospectus
- Lock-up
- 365 days
- Early release on earnings
- No
- Price-based early release
- at 130% of offer
- Staggered release
- Yes
- Float sold in IPO
- 5%
- Locked shares per share sold
- 18.2×
- Backed by
- Private equity
- Lead underwriters
- Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Banco Bradesco BBI S.A.
- Dual-class shares
- No
- Controlled company
- No
- Foreign private issuer
- Yes
Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.
Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m
| Horizon | GRO | Peer median | Peers below offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -9.9% | 0.0% | 47% n=189 |
| Day 20 | -43.5% | -10.3% | 61% n=187 |
| Day 60 | -81.3% | -34.4% | 70% n=184 |
| Day 120 | -91.3% | -51.8% | 78% n=177 |
| Day 180 | -89.7% | -68.7% | 83% n=174 |
Research signals
- SellRule O1: sell signal for 60 sessionsOct 30, 2025 · Lock-up overhangPast signals (178, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -17.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%backtest
Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).
- BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessionsOct 30, 2025 · Pre-unlock qualityPast signals (31, deals under $50M): rose 65% · median +5.1% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 13%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule RL: buy signal for 60 sessionsOct 30, 2025 · Pre-unlock risk tierPast signals (59, deals under $50M): rose 49% · median 0.0% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 27%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessionsJan 29, 2025 · CapitulationPast signals (357, deals under $50M): rose 42% · median -6.8% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 49%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessionsDec 26, 2024 · Microcap dealPast signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%backtest
Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).
- SellRule R20: sell signal for 100 sessionsDec 26, 2024 · Day-20 risk tierPast signals (280, deals under $50M): fell 76% · median -33.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%backtest
Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).
Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.
The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.
Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.
Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.