IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

EFTY

ValleyIndustrials

ETOILES CAPITAL GROUP CO., LTD · NASDAQ Capital · priced Aug 8, 2025 · $6M raised · Under $50M

Offer price
$4.00
Day 1
+22.0%
close vs offer
Peak
+324.5%
trading day 37
Now vs offer
+275.5%
$15.02 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-11.5%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Feb 4, 2026
268d ago · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • EFTY
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO under $50m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

EFTY measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 382 under $50m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Etoiles Capital Group Co., Ltd, through its subsidiaries, provides integrated investor relations services in Hong Kong, China, and the United States. The company offers public relations management, advertising strategies and publicity materials, investor relations management, and due diligence; and value-added services, such as website design enhancements and production of promotional videos. It also provides support…

Sector
Industrials
Industry
Consulting Services
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
24
Market cap
$302M

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
7%
Locked shares per share sold
13.2×
Backed by
Founder or family
Lead underwriters
Prime Number Capital LLC
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
Yes
Foreign private issuer
Yes

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 189 IPOs under $50m

HorizonEFTYPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1+22.0%0.0%47% n=189
Day 20+67.8%-10.3%61% n=187
Day 60+275.5%-34.4%70% n=184
Day 120+275.5%-51.8%78% n=177
Day 180+275.5%-68.7%83% n=174

Research signals

  • SellRule O1: sell signal for 60 sessions
    Jan 6, 2026 · Lock-up overhang
    Past signals (178, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -17.4% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule RL: sell signal for 60 sessions
    Jan 6, 2026 · Pre-unlock risk tier
    Past signals (233, deals under $50M): fell 69% · median -13.9% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 49%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

  • SellRule F1: sell signal for 100 sessions
    Sep 5, 2025 · Microcap deal
    Past signals (387, deals under $50M): fell 73% · median -29.0% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 50%
    backtest

    Deal under $50M: published as a sell signal only, because shorting such shares is usually impractical (hard to borrow, high borrow fees, frequent squeezes).

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.