IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

CRWV

ValleyTechnology

CoreWeave, Inc. · NASDAQ Global Select · priced Mar 28, 2025 · $1.5B raised · Over $250M

Offer price
$40.00
Day 1
0.0%
close vs offer
Peak
+359.0%
trading day 58
Now vs offer
+51.9%
$60.74 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-64.8%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Sep 24, 2025
401d ago · from prospectus · early release May 19, 2025

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Valley.

Performance since the IPO

  • CRWV
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO over $250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

CRWV measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 340 over $250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

CoreWeave, Inc. operates as a cloud infrastructure technology company in the United States. The company offers CoreWeave Cloud platform that comprises proprietary software and cloud services that deliver the automation and efficiency needed to manage complex artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure at scale. It also offers data and storage solutions, such as Local Object Transport Accelerator; infrastructure contr…

Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Country
United States
Employees
2,189
Market cap
$33.3B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
Yes
Price-based early release
at 125% of offer
Staggered release
Yes
Float sold in IPO
8%
Locked shares per share sold
11.4×
Backed by
Mixed investors
Lead underwriters
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Dual-class shares
Yes
Controlled company
No
Foreign private issuer
No

Early-release terms: The Lock-up Period ends on the earlier of (i) the close of trading on the second trading day after the public announcement of earnings for the second quarter following the latest period with financial statements in the prospectus and (ii) 180 days after the prospectus date. Separately, at the close of trading on the second trading day after the first-quarter earnings release (the Initial Post-Offering Earnings Release Date), about 1,004,372 shares held by current employees and service providers (excluding Co-Founders and directors) are released if the price condition is met.

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 135 IPOs over $250m

HorizonCRWVPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 10.0%+12.8%24% n=135
Day 20+3.9%+11.6%30% n=133
Day 60+331.5%+6.3%47% n=129
Day 120+203.5%-4.6%54% n=106
Day 180+96.5%-4.1%52% n=89

Research signals

  • BuyRule C1: buy signal for 40 sessions
    Nov 20, 2025 · Capitulation
    Past signals (652, deals of $50M and over): rose 53% · median +2.1% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 33%
    backtest

    Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.

  • Sell or shortRule E1: sell or short signal for 60 sessions
    Aug 13, 2025 · Weak earnings reaction
    Past signals (186, deals of $50M and over): fell 70% · median -13.6% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 33%
    backtest

    Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.

  • Sell or shortRule R20: sell or short signal for 100 sessions
    Apr 25, 2025 · Day-20 risk tier
    Past signals (118, deals of $50M and over): fell 70% · median -24.6% · rallied 25%+ during the hold 55%
    backtest

    Short-selling risk: losses on a short position have no limit and can exceed the amount put up; brokers can demand more margin, recall borrowed shares or close the position; borrow fees and any dividends are owed while short and are not in the figures shown; recent IPOs are often hard to borrow and prone to squeezes.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

The rules run independently, so one IPO can carry buy and sell signals at the same time; each label reports only its own rule's history.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.