Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. · NASDAQ Capital · priced Oct 2, 2025 · $172M raised · $50M–$250M
Price since listing
- Hype
- Distribution
- Lock-up window
- Valley
- Accumulation
- Recovery
Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Recovery.
Performance since the IPO
- CBK
- S&P 500 (SPY)
- Typical IPO $50m–$250m
- Middle 50% of those IPOs
CBK measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 453 $50m–$250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.
Company
Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commercial Bank that provides a range of banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in the United States. The company accepts various deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, interest-bearing products, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit products. It also offers real estate, commercial, and consumer loa…
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Country
- United States
- Employees
- 292
- Market cap
- $444M
- Website
- www.cbtn.com
From the prospectus
- Lock-up
- 180 days
- Early release on earnings
- No
- Price-based early release
- No
- Staggered release
- No
- Float sold in IPO
- 52%
- Locked shares per share sold
- 0.9×
- Backed by
- Founder or family
- Lead underwriters
- Hovde Group, LLC
- Dual-class shares
- No
- Controlled company
- No
- Foreign private issuer
- No
Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.
Returns vs offer, compared with 90 IPOs $50m–$250m
| Horizon | CBK | Peer median | Peers below offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.1% | +0.4% | 36% n=90 |
| Day 20 | +1.5% | +0.3% | 46% n=87 |
| Day 60 | +0.4% | +3.4% | 43% n=83 |
| Day 120 | +6.5% | -6.9% | 58% n=73 |
| Day 180 | +29.4% | -13.1% | 56% n=64 |
Research signals
- BuyRule T1: buy signal for 60 sessionsMar 3, 2026 · Pre-unlock qualityPast signals (642, deals of $50M and over): rose 47% · median -2.6% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 35%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule RL: buy signal for 60 sessionsMar 3, 2026 · Pre-unlock risk tierPast signals (329, deals of $50M and over): rose 54% · median +1.3% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 22%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
- BuyRule R20: buy signal for 100 sessionsOct 29, 2025 · Day-20 risk tierPast signals (389, deals of $50M and over): rose 46% · median -2.7% · dropped 25%+ during the hold 39%backtest
Buy signals passed on returns relative to IPOs of the same year, size and age, most of which fall after listing. A buy signal can beat its peers and still lose money.
Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.
Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.
Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.