IPO Arc: the rise and fall after listingIPO Arc

AADX

DistributionIndustrials

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. · NYSE · priced Jun 3, 2026 · $650M raised · Over $250M

Offer price
$20.00
Day 1
-4.9%
close vs offer
Peak
+19.3%
trading day 20
Now vs offer
-40.9%
$11.82 on Oct 29, 2026
Off peak
-58.5%
peak to subsequent low
Lock-up expiry
Nov 30, 2026
in 31d · from prospectus

Price since listing

  • Hype
  • Distribution
  • Lock-up window
  • Valley
  • Accumulation
  • Recovery

Volume bars are coloured by lifecycle phase. Markers: lock-up and early release (orange), earnings releases (E), follow-on offerings (F), research signals (rule id and signal; arrow up = buy signal, arrow down = sell or short signal, or sell signal for deals under $50M). Current phase: Distribution.

Performance since the IPO

  • AADX
  • S&P 500 (SPY)
  • Typical IPO over $250m
  • Middle 50% of those IPOs

AADX measured from its offer price; S&P 500 from the first trading day. The typical-IPO line is the median of 340 over $250m IPOs from 2014–2025, by trading day.

Company

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. designs, engineers, and manufactures integrated aerospace and defense subsystems for space and defense applications. The company provides Space and launch Systems, which include propellant tanks and engine nozzles; nose cones, fairings, and payload adapters; solar arrays and deployable systems; satellite bus and payload assemblies; Spinnaker® de-orbit systems; antennas and precision …

Sector
Industrials
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
Country
United States
Employees
1,542
Market cap
$1.8B

From the prospectus

Lock-up
180 days
Early release on earnings
No
Price-based early release
No
Staggered release
No
Float sold in IPO
19%
Locked shares per share sold
4.3×
Backed by
Private equity
Lead underwriters
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Jefferies LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC
Dual-class shares
No
Controlled company
Yes
Foreign private issuer
No

Extracted from the final prospectus on SEC EDGAR.

Returns vs offer, compared with 135 IPOs over $250m

HorizonAADXPeer medianPeers below offer
Day 1-4.9%+12.8%24% n=135
Day 20+19.3%+11.6%30% n=133
Day 60-27.9%+6.3%47% n=129
Day 120—-4.6%54% n=106
Day 180—-4.1%52% n=89

Research signals

No rule has triggered for this IPO.

Rules frozen as v1; signals dated from Oct 29, 2026 are live, earlier ones show what the frozen rules would have flagged. See methodology.

Past figures cover all 4,312 signals the published frozen v1 rules produce on 2014–2025 IPOs, close to close over each signal's holding period. Returns start at the close of the signal session; signals are published after that close, so the first price available to a reader is the next session's. Only 1,192 of 2,368 operating-company IPOs from those years have usable Yahoo Finance price data; most of the rest no longer trade under their IPO ticker (delisted, acquired or renamed), so the figures probably understate declines. These are hypothetical results, not trades: the rules were selected on these same years with the benefit of hindsight, so the figures likely overstate what live signals will do. The live track record is the real test. Trading costs and borrow fees are not included. Past results do not predict future results.

Research signals only, not investment advice. Lock-up terms come from prospectuses; prices from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed or wrong.